Deer hunting in Wisconsin: Is canary in the coal mine?

Patrick Durkin|For the State Journal | Posted: Saturday, January 1, 2011 8:29 pm
http://host.madison.com/sports/recreation/outdoors/article_aab5828a-1618-11e0-9e48-001cc4c03286.html?print=1

Warning signs are useless unless recognized as such.

A first-time visitor to an 1850s coal mine might have felt sorrow seeing a dead parakeet in its cage. A miner, meanwhile, would have glanced at it and dashed for the exit, knowing deadly gases would kill him next if he didn't act fast.

Likewise, folks in wildlife agencies and the hunting industry gasp, blink and request verification when told Wisconsin's greatest declines in deer hunting participation the past decade were among males 25 to 44 years old.

But yep, that's what Dr. Richelle Winkler at the University of Wisconsin's Applied Population Laboratory found while studying Wisconsin's trends.

Why is that so alarming? Because 25- to 44-year-old males have long been considered prime participants. They generally hunt the most, hunt the hardest, buy the most gear, shoot the most deer, father the most kids and train the most young hunters.

As long as their numbers grew, or their participation rates kept pace with their segment of the overall population, hunting would remain strong. In fact, even as Wisconsin's hunter numbers declined the past decade -- and the nation's declined the past quarter-century -- analysts often assumed the losses reflected the aging Baby Boomer generation.

That is, as Boomers passed age 50 and quit hunting as their interest or health slipped, they supposedly depopulated the hunting community. But it's not that easy. When Winkler studied Wisconsin's firearms hunting data from 2000 through '09, she didn't simply chart license sales for each sex/age group between 15 and 80.

No, she determined hunting participation rates for each age group, which meant dividing each year-group of deer hunters by its corresponding cohort in the state's overall population. This revealed Baby Boomers are in no hurry to quit hunting, but they aren't being replaced by equally large groups of diehards.

"Yes, there's a lot of Baby Boomers in Wisconsin, but a high percentage of them like to hunt," Winkler said in an interview. "They're also hunting later into life than their predecessors, probably because they have more money and are in better health. But there's fewer hunters in the age groups behind them, and their participation rates are lower, too."

Further, although 23 percent of males aged 25 to 44 statewide bought a gun deer license in 2009, participation rates were lowest in highly populated counties: Milwaukee (5.3 percent); Kenosha (9.2); Dane (12.3); and Racine (13).

In contrast, counties with high participation rates for males aged 25 to 44 in 2009 were rural, less-populated "outposts" such as Taylor (64 percent); Buffalo (62.2); and Price (61.6).

A decline has other repercussions. When analyzing 2004-2009 data, Winkler detected increased participation rates for 12-year-old hunters. This suggests the state's increased efforts to introduce youths to hunting might be working.

She said, however, that it's too soon to know if these programs will boost long-term participation. The 2004-2009 analysis showed a steep drop in participation rates for 14-, 15- and 16-year-olds; and even steeper declines in 35- to 45-year-olds.

"If your parents aren't hunting, you're not likely hunting, either," Winkler said.
Again, the numbers suggest hunting's challenges go beyond simple factors such as fewer deer sightings, unhappiness with hunting regulations or hunter-education requirements.

The declines also don't suggest a rising tide in anti-hunting influence. In fact, a recent Department of Natural Resources study found 25 percent of Wisconsinites identified themselves as hunters, even though DNR sales figures show only 14 percent of residents buy hunting licenses each year. Apparently these folks have hunted before or intend to hunt "next fall," but don't get around to it.

It's time we ask why their interest has waned.